In recent discourse, Israel has repeatedly mentioned regime change in Tehran. On February 28, immediately after attacking Tehran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again called on the Iranian people to overthrow the government.

Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran “will create conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take control of their own destiny.”

“It is time for all segments of the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny and bring about a free, peace-loving Iran,” Netanyahu said.

However, this is not a simple problem.

Iran possesses the largest arsenal and defense industry in the region, second only to Israel, and has nuclear technology close to the level of weapons production.

Following the 12-day war, the whereabouts of approximately 400kg of 60% enriched nuclear material are unknown; it is unclear whether they were destroyed or moved elsewhere. Furthermore, Iran possesses a complex network of proxy arms operating throughout the Middle East.

If the current regime collapses, the power vacuum will be enormous. There is no guarantee that the new government will be friendly to the West, or even that anyone will be capable of controlling the entire nuclear arsenal and the vast proxy network.

The risk of Iran disintegrating, with its nuclear weapons and technology falling into the hands of independent factions and proxy groups operating without a head, is very real.